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Gambler's Fallacy

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The gambler's fallacy is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour or occurences are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process or event, then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations or events in the future.


  • "The last four coin tosses were heads, therefor the next toss has a higher likelyhood of being tails."


The coin toss is the best example of this fallacy. A fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up as tails up when tossed. Each toss is unaffected by previous tosses. The chances remain 50/50 for every toss.

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